Market report
Published on September 02, 2026The real odds of getting the rare one, card by card
What the market doesn't show you
On the secondary market, the most sought-after cards have often already been pulled before the display reaches you. Based on community reports, up to 70% of individually sold displays have already been purged of their biggest hit.
The table below compares two situations for each card: the real odds the publisher gives you on an unsorted case, and what's actually left once you buy a display that's already passed through other hands.
The real odds of getting the rare one
| Card | Rarity | Without Unmapped | With Unmapped |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Manga (OP-13) | Red MR | ~0% | ~1% |
| Gold Manga (OP-11/14) | Gold MR | ~0% | ~1% |
| Manga Rare | MR | ~0% | ~2% |
| Special Rare | SP | ~0% | ~8% |
| Leader Alt Art | Leader ALT | ~0% | ~8% to ~17% |
| Super Rare Alt Art / Parallel | SR AA | ~0% | ~8% to ~17% |
| Secret Rare | SEC | Possible | Guaranteed |
| Super Rare | SR | Possible | Guaranteed |
On the secondary market, the rarest cards have already been pulled before your display goes on sale. On Unmapped, every case is opened and certified in front of you. You get the real Bandai odds. Not the leftovers.
Odds based on community data. Bandai does not publish official ratios. Results vary by set and print run.
How to read this table
The "Without Unmapped" column reflects what's left once a display may have already been opened and re-sorted on the regular market. The "With Unmapped" column shows the publisher's real odds, the ones you get when the case is opened in front of you, with nothing removed beforehand.
These figures come from community reports: the publisher doesn't release official ratios, and results vary by set and print run.
This unsorted guarantee isn't just a claim: it's the core mechanic of a case split, explained in full in our guide on how a room actually works.